NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMOB 031130 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .AVIATION [03.12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...FRONTAL CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...BUT WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT. CIG BASES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AM BECOME SW DURING THE AFTN. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 / .SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]...COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM. IT APPEARS THE THICKEST FRONTAL CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL COME IN TONIGHT. NO RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY. BUFR SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL EDGE HIGHER ABOUT A HALF AN INCH TO (~1.4-1.6") OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ARE SET TO AROUND 10% TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR AN OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT RAIN. NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS JUNCTURE WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINS THOUGH. MOS SUITES ARE CLOSE ON DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S COAST. /10 .LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...BASE OF BROAD UPPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN ADVANCE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOUTH THE FRONT AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 62 DEGREES WELL INLAND...AND THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 72 TO 77 DEGREES COASTAL SECTIONS. /22 && .MARINE...FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...TURNS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST. A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW (10-15 KTS) CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN GULF FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SEAS LOOK TO MOVE HIGHER TUE DUE TO A MODERATE AND PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST FETCH. /10 && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND TO THE 40S ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS JUNCTURE...CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EVEN DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RED FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET BY THAT TIME. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 94 69 91 63 / 05 10 10 10 PENSACOLA 93 73 91 70 / 05 10 10 10 DESTIN 90 75 90 71 / 05 10 10 10 EVERGREEN 95 67 89 57 / 05 10 10 05 WAYNESBORO 94 65 88 56 / 05 10 05 10 CAMDEN 95 66 88 56 / 05 10 10 10 CRESTVIEW 96 67 92 63 / 00 10 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion