NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMOB 172336 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 635 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010 .AVIATION...CIGS AND VISBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA LATE TONIGHT BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF. /13 ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT... .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)500 MILLIBAR LOW THAT WAS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE H5 LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH LEFT OVER BY THIS MORNINGS LOW. WILL HAVE RAIN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOST MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT ONLY THE NAM HAS MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFS/GEM WITH THE POPS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TAP THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 70...JUST A TAD COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES. RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH GETS ORGANIZED TO THE WEST WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. /11 && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO GET MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEW GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND HAS THE STRONGEST H8 WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT...SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BOTH AVERAGING ~30 TO 35 KTS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF...OF WHICH THE MODELS STILL SHOW VERY LITTLE. NIGHTTIME PASSAGE SHOULD MITIGATE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GET INTO MORE SPECIFICS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST 17.12Z GUIDANCE HAS CAME DOWN A BIT ON THE POPS TO CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THIS FORECAST. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST WITH IT. MAY HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY SUN AFTERNOON AS WE DRY SLOT...THEN A RETURN OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROF MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUN/MON MOVE TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...THEN REBOUND ON TUE. /11 && .MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BUILD LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY... CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 32/EE && .FIRE WEATHER...NO LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY UNTIL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY...MAYBE A WEEK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 43 64 43 71 / 10 20 05 05 PENSACOLA 44 62 48 69 / 10 20 05 10 DESTIN 44 59 50 68 / 10 20 05 10 EVERGREEN 42 64 41 73 / 20 20 10 05 WAYNESBORO 40 65 39 72 / 20 30 05 00 CAMDEN 41 64 40 72 / 20 30 10 00 CRESTVIEW 43 64 41 73 / 20 20 05 05 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion