NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMOB 102055 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT CHARTS SHOW A WEAK LOW DRIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATING. WRAPAROUND STRATOCUMULUS MOVING WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FINALLY REACHING THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THAT WOULD HAVE A INHIBITING EFFECT ON FOG FORMING SO LEFT OUT FOG TONIGHT AND SUCCEEDING NIGHTS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LEAVE THE LOWS TONIGHT ALONE SINCE THE MAV HAS CLOUD COVER IN SIGHT. WAVELENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SHORTENING BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ITS CURRENT POSITION FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER CONTINUED ROSSBY WAVE-LIKE RETROGRESSION OVER THIS WEEKEND SEEMS NO LONGER AS EVIDENT AS BEFORE. THIS FEATURE WOULD THEN STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND START DRIFTING EAST LATE SUNDAY. UPPER LOW DRIFTING IN OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARD US EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE TO INDUCE A QUASI-COLD CORE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ARRIVAL. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE MOVING FURTHER WEST. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS BY SUNDAY. /77 DALY .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES. LONGWAVE PATTERN (WAVENUMBER5) SHOWS PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOTION OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES, WITH A TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES NEARER TO NORMAL. ISENTROPIC LIFTING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND-OR DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EFFECTS OF UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL END MID WEEK AS FEATURE MOVES WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /77 DALY && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR MARINE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AND 7 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /05 && .AVIATION...STRATOCU HAS SCATTERED OUT A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON....BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB THROUGH TOMORROW...SO EXPECT PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECKS AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW. /05 && .FIRE WEATHER...NO HAZARDS NEAR TERM. TRANSPORT WIND FROM NORTHEAST INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOWEST RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA. DISPERSION MODERATE. /77 DALY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 62 81 64 82 / 05 00 05 10 PENSACOLA 64 82 67 83 / 05 05 10 10 DESTIN 72 80 75 81 / 05 05 10 20 EVERGREEN 60 81 61 82 / 05 05 05 20 WAYNESBORO 58 81 60 81 / 05 00 05 10 CAMDEN 60 81 60 80 / 05 00 05 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion